Economic Side Effects
Research by the Political Psychology Research Group at Stanford University
Introduction Fundamentals Who Should Take Action Government Policy Economic Side Effects Willingness to Pay Priority Consequences of Global Warming Preparing for Possible Consequences Consumer Choices Attitude Strength Voter Behavior Opinions in the States Trust in Scientists Scientists' Beliefs Partisan Views Publications Lectures and Podcasts
People’s opinions about some public policies can be influenced by how they think those policies will impact the economy. And proposed efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by changing how electricity is produced, used, and managed has the potential to affect the economy in many different sectors.
We have explored whether Americans’ support for emissions reduction policies is limited in part because of aversion to undesirable and unintended economic side effects of these policies.
Impact on Jobs and the Economy
In fact, only minorities of Americans have believed that global warming mitigation efforts will negatively affect the economy.
As shown in the figure below, about one quarter of respondents from 2009 to 2024 (with some variation over the years) believed that government actions on global warming will hurt the U.S. economy.
With percentages hovering at about 50% since November 2009, pluralities of people have said that such actions will instead help the economy, with 44% of Americans believing this in 2024.
Even as unemployment climbed to 9.8% in November 2010, people did not become more likely to see potential government action on global warming as causing problems for job availability. Many more people believed that action on global warming will actually increase the number of jobs in the country (48% in 2010) than believed the opposite (18%) (see the following two figures). In 2024, 35% of Americans thought taking action on global warming would increase the number of jobs in the U.S., compared to 27% who believed it would decrease the number of jobs.
When respondents were asked about their states of residence, in 2010, 45% felt that there will be more jobs in their state as a result of possible global warming actions, and 48% thought it will help their state economy. In 2024, these numbers were 32% and 39%, respectively.
Impact on Personal Finances
In 2020 and 2024, respondents were asked about how the government taking action on global warming might affect them personally. This was measured in two ways: their personal wealth and their prospects for a good-paying job.
With regards to the former, in 2020, 20% of Americans believed that the US government taking action on global warming would result in them having less money, compared to 10% who believed that it would cause them to have more money. In 2024, 36% of Americans believed that the US government taking action on global warming would result in them having less money, compared to 8% who believed that it would cause them to have more money.
In 2020, more Americans believed that the US government taking action on global warming would increase their likelihood of having a good-paying job (16%) than decrease it (12%). In 2024, these numbers were 17% and 17%, respectively.
