Partisan Views
Research by the Political Psychology Research Group at Stanford University
Introduction Fundamentals Who Should Take Action Government Policy Economic Side Effects Willingness to Pay Priority Consequences of Global Warming Preparing for Possible Consequences Consumer Choices Attitude Strength Voter Behavior Opinions in the States Trust in Scientists Scientists' Beliefs Partisan Views Publications Lectures and Podcasts
On many policy issues, Democrats and Republicans differ sharply from each other. When PPRG’s survey series began in 1997, just before Bill Clinton and Al Gore hosted the White House Conference on Climate Change, the partisan gap on many aspects of global warming was small. Over the years since then, however, the partisan gap has grown.
The graphs below track opinions on various issues related to global warming among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. They document the growth of the partisan gap and illustrate how it differs across issues.
To set the stage for these findings, we illustrate the percent of respondents in our surveys who identified themselves as Democrats, Independents, and Republicans (see the following graph).
Overview
In our surveys conducted since 1997, PPRG has asked different questions across different surveys.
Because of this, in order to document trends over time in the partisan gap, there is a tradeoff where we can either describe more years using fewer questions, or fewer years using more questions. We describe results using two different approaches, which end up supporting similar conclusions.
The first graph below shows the average partisan gap on two opinions that were measured in all of our surveys: whether global warming has been happening, and whether, if warming has been happening, it has been caused at least partly by human activity. The partisan gap, which was only 8 percentage points on average in 1997 and 1998, peaked at 30 percentage points in 2011 and stabilized between 24 and 28 percentage points from 2012 to 2020. However, in 2024, this gap was 35 percentage points, the greatest the partisan gap has been.
The second graph shows the partisan gap using seven measures included in 10 surveys: (1) that global warming has been happening, (2) that, if warming has been happening, it was caused at least in part by human activity, (3) that policy should reduce greenhouse gas emissions by power plants, (4) that CAFE standards should be increased (standards about the fuel efficiency of cars), (5) that energy efficiency of buildings should be increased, (6) that energy efficiency of appliances should be increased, and (7) that climate scientists are trustworthy.
Using those measures, the partisan gap was 9 and 11 percentage points on average in 2006 and 2007, grew to 15 to 31 percentage points during 2007-2013, and stabilized between 22 and 29 percentage points in 2012-2020. In 2024, the gap was 38 percentage points, greater than the previous years of 2020 (27%) and 2018 (21%).
Fundamentals
Next, we describe the magnitude of and trends in the partisan gap for individual opinions over the years.
Since 1997 to 2020, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed that the earth has probably been warming over the last 100 years (see the figure below). In 2020, 95% of Democrats, 81% of Independents, and 71% of Republicans believed that global warming has been happening.
However, in 2024, only 43% of Republicans believed the world's temperature has been increasing over the past 100 years. 88% of Democrats believed that the world's temperature has been increasing over the past 100 years, leading to a partisan difference of 45 percentage points.
Since 1997, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed that, if the world’s temperature has increased over the past 100 years, that warming has been caused at least partly by humans (see the figure below). In 2024, 92% of Democrats reported belief that increases in global temperature were caused mostly or partly by human activities—a high (though, not the highest) level of consensus for Democrats. 84% of Independents, and 67% of Republicans believed that global warming was attributable to human activities in 2024.
Since 1997 to 2020, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed that the world's temperature will probably go up 100 years from now if nothing is done to prevent it (see the figure below). However, in 2024, only 48% of Republicans believed that warming will probably continue in the future. On the other hand, the majorities of Democrats (95%) and Independents (74%) believed the world's temperature will probably go up in the next 100 years.
Whereas majorities of Democrats and Independents have consistently believed that 5-degrees Fahrenheit of global warming would be bad, the proportion of Republicans expressing that belief has hovered around the midline, peaking at 59% when this survey began in 1997, and dipping to its lowest points of 47% in 2010, 2015, and 2024 (see the figure below). The partisan gap in 2024 is the biggest observed since 1997.
Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently believed that global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the world in the future. In 2024, 96% of Democrats, 55% of Republicans, and 73% of Independents shared this view. The partisan gap was 41 percentage points in 2024.
Action
Since 1997, majorities of Democrats and Independents have consistently believed that the federal government should do more about global warming. In 2024, 85% of Democrats and 65% of Independents favored more federal action. Minorities of Republicans have favored increased government action (45% in 2024). The partisan gap was 40 percentage points in 2024, which is smaller than the partisan gap in 2020.
Since 1997, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed governments in other countries should do more about global warming (see figure below). In 2024, 83% of Democrats, 55% of Republicans, and 69% of Independents believed this, with a partisan gap of 28 percentage points.
Since 1997, majorities of Democrats and Independents have believed governments in other countries should do more about global warming. In 2024, 88% of Democrats and 65% of Independents thought businesses should do more, respectively. Minorities of Republicans have favored increased government action, with all time highs of 58-59% in 1997 and 1998 (see the figure below). The partisan gap was 45 percentage points in 2024.
Since 1997, majorities of Democrats Independents have believed average people should also do more about global warming. In 2020, 83% of Democrats and 63% of Independents thought average people should do more. Smaller, though still significant, proportions of Republicans have also favored increased individual action, with an all time high of 61% in 2018 (see the figure below). The partisan gap was 42 percentage points in 2024.
Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently believed that the federal government should limit the amount of greenhouse gases that businesses emit from 1997 to 2020. In 2024, however, 47% of Republicans favored this policy option, with a partisan gap of 43 percentage points (a fairly large increase from past years). Additionally, 76% of Independents thought the federal government should limit the amount of greenhouse gas U.S. businesses emit.
In 2012, a minority of Republicans (44%) thought the U.S. should take action about global warming even if other major industrial countries do less. In 2015, this percentage increased: 58% of Republicans thought the U.S. should take action about global warming even if other major industrial countries do less. 76% of Independents and 87% of Democrats took this stance, with a partisan gap of 29 percentage points in 2015, about the same as in 2008 and after.
Specific Policies
Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to cause more electricity to be generated using water, wind, and solar power. In 2024, 86% of Democrats, 54% of Republicans, and 72% of Independents favored this policy, reflecting a partisan gap of 32 percentage points, the largest it has been since the start of this survey.
Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to lower the amount of greenhouse gases produced by power plants from 2006 to 2020. In 2024, 61% of Republicans supported this policy option. 90% of Democrats supported this policy, with a partisan gap of 29 percentage points.
From 1997 to 2020, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have also consistently favored federal government efforts to cause improvement in fuel efficiency of cars. However, in 2024, 41% of Republicans supported this policy option. 80% of Democrats and 62% of Independents support this policy, with a partisan gap of 39 percentage points.
In 2024, 88% of Democrats, 40% or Republicans, and 74% of Independents thought the government should require by law or encourage with tax breaks the making of more energy-efficient buildings. This was the largest partisan gap in 2024 (48%) since the survey started in 2006.
In 2024, 86% of Democrats, 55% or Republicans, and 72% or Independents favored federal government efforts to cause appliances to become more energy efficient, with a partisan gap of 34 percentage points (about the same as in 2013). In 2024, the partisan gap grew: 85% of Democrats thought the government should require by law or encourage with tax breaks the making of energy-efficient appliances, while 48% of Republicans agreed with this.
Majorities of Democrats and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to cause more cars to be built running completely on electricity. In 2015, 70% of Democrats and 60% or Independents favored this policy option, while 47% of Republicans did (see the figure below). In 2024, only 16% of Republicans thought the government should require by law or encourage with tax breaks the building of cars that run completely on electricity. 70% of Democrats and 47% of Independents supported this policy in 2024.
Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to encourage reducing air pollution from burning coal. Strikingly, this was most popular among Republicans in (76%), less popular among Independents (64%), and less popular still (60%) among Democrats (see graph below). Thus, the partisan gap reversed. In 2024, however, this policy was most popular among Independents, with a proportion of 66% compared to 62% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans.
The proportions of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who favored federal government efforts to provide tax breaks to encourage construction of nuclear power plants have varied above and below 50%. Republicans have almost always favored these plans more than Democrats and Independents. In 2024, 38% of Democrats, 55% of Republicans, and 48% of Independents favored this policy option, with a partisan gap of 17 percentage points (about the same as in 2006 and after).
An increase in federal taxes on gasoline to cause people to use less of it has been most popular among Democrats: 50% of Democrats, 24% of Independents, and only 6% of Republicans support favored the federal government increasing taxes on gasoline.
An increase in federal taxes on electricity to cause people to use less of it has never gained majority support. Increased electricity taxes were supported by only 40% of Democrats, 12% of Republicans, and 27% of Independents in 2020 (Figure 24), with a partisan gap of 47 percentage points—an all-time high. In 2024, 27% of Democrats, 13% of Independents, and 3% of Republicans favored this policy.
Engagement
The proportion of people in the global warming issue public (for whom the issue is extremely personally important) is largest among Democrats in 2020 at 43%. In 2024, 37% of Democrats, 18% of Independents, and 5% of Republicans thought global warming is extremely important to them personally.
Reported knowledge about climate change was high among all three groups, and higher among Democrats than among Republicans and Independents, with a 16-percentage-point partisan gap in 2024 (see the figure below).
Trust in Scientists
The vast majority of Democrats (87%) and smaller majorities of Republicans (56%) and Independents (74%) trusted scientists studying the environment in 2020. However, for Republicans, this changed in 2024: 43% of Republicans trusted things scientists say about the environment completely, a lot, or a moderate amount, The partisan gap was 45 percentage points in 2024.
